AI Stock Memo: AAUC - Allied Gold - RankAlpha

AAUC

Rating buyAI Memo

Allied Gold

As of 2026-01-13/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Mineral resource / reserve update or feasibility milestone • 2026-04-13

Expected move: +12%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes operational setbacks, lower realized gold prices, or dilution/financing needs that push valuation materially below the anchor.

Invalidation

Break below $22 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes successful execution on near-term project milestones, stable-to-rising gold prices, and positive resource updates that justify a >25% premium to the anchor.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-13

Base target

$29

p=60%

Bull target

$33

p=20%

Bear target

$22

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly results / production update
Mine expansion / commissioning completion
Bull case assumes successful execution on near-term project milestones, stable-to-rising gold prices, and positive resource updates that justify a >25% premium to the anchor.

BearKey bullets

Financing / dilution risk
Gold-price decline
Operational disruptions

WatchKey bullets

Mineral resource / reserve update or feasibility milestone

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $29 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +29% / -14%

Vs latest close: Bull +29% · Base +12% · Bear -14%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $33 (p=20%)Base Target: $29 (p=60%)Bear Target: $22 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus skews mildly positive: published targets average in the high-20s USD, implying moderate upside versus the anchor [#SERP-1]. Coverage highlights project progress and resource updates as primary re-rating drivers but flags execution and commodity-price risk. Overall tone: cautiously constructive, highly sensitive to near-term operational results [#SERP-4][#SERP-6].

As of 2026-01-13 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes successful execution on near-term project milestones, stable-to-rising gold prices, and positive resource updates that justify a >25% premium to the anchor.

Bear Case

Bear case assumes operational setbacks, lower realized gold prices, or dilution/financing needs that push valuation materially below the anchor.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly results / production update
Mine expansion / commissioning completion

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-13Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$28.37

Range (USD)

$24.78 - $38.35

Count

Query: Allied Gold Corp Common (AAUC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #1
The average price target is $28.37 with a high forecast of $33.19 and a low forecast of $25.25. The average price target represents a 15.02% change from the ...
Extracted: $28.37, $33.19, $25.25Open source
ALLIED GOLD CORP(NYSE:AAUC) stock Analyst Ratings - Chartmill
Search result #2
12 analysts have analysed AAUC and the average price target is 29.11 USD. This implies a price increase of 11.06% is expected in the next year compared to the ...
Extracted: $29.11Open source
Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC.TO) Analyst Ratings, Estimates ...
Search result #3
See Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC.TO) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
Wall Street Analysts Believe Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) Could ...
Search result #4
The average of price targets set by Wall Street analysts indicates a potential upside of 27.4% in Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC).
Open sourceJan 5, 2026
AAUC Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Allied Gold Corp
Search result #5
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAUC is 40.35 CAD with a low forecast of 35.35 CAD and a high forecast of 48.3 CAD.
Open source
AAUC - Allied Gold Corporation (NYSE) - Share Price and News
Search result #6
The average one-year price target for Allied Gold Corporation is $28.65. The forecasts range from a low of $25.37 to a high of $34.67. A stock's price target ...
Extracted: $28.65, $25.37, $34.67Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$33 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$29 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=20% prob

Price $25 as of 2026-06-09

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 12%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +29% · Base +12% · Bear -14%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-13
Mineral resource / reserve update or feasibility milestone
Potential resource/reserve update or feasibility milestone that could re-rate project valuation; date assumed (conservative window end) due to lack of explicit public schedule [#SERP-1].
Prob 45.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly results / production update
2026-04-13
Next quarterly results may move sentiment around production and sales; date assumed conservatively when not disclosed [#SERP-4].
Prob 70% • Move 8% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Mine expansion / commissioning completion
2027-01-13
Longer-term operational expansion or commissioning that could materially increase production and cashflow; multi-year execution risk applies [#SERP-6].
Prob 30% • Move 45% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Financing / dilution risk
Gold-price decline
Operational disruptions
Permitting or regulatory delays

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NEM	Large global gold producer with diversified operations—useful operational and market-comparison anchor.
GOLD	Major gold miner with similar sensitivity to gold price and large-scale capital projects.
AU	Mid/large-cap gold producer with overlapping geographic/regional project risks and financing profiles.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Allied Gold Corp Common (AAUC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-13