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Risk Nowcast

How the daily Nowcast translates cross-asset inputs into an equity drawdown risk score.

Risk Nowcast field manual
0
100
Risk-On
Mixed
Risk-Off
52
Risk-Off Score
Updated every trading day by 8:30 AM ET

What changed

1 trading day+6
5 trading days+12

Rising score means higher estimated equity drawdown risk.

Headline pillars

The score blends market plumbing, volatility, credit, rates, breadth, and rotation into a single risk-off reading.

Liquidity

47 /100
Easing lowers risk-2 vs 1D

Fed liquidity, funding conditions, and market plumbing. Easier liquidity usually lowers the risk-off score.

Tier 1

Vol / Tail risk

57 /100
Worsening+7 vs 1D

Equity volatility, VIX term structure, SKEW, and demand for tail hedges.

Tier 1

Credit

51 /100
Neutral+1 vs 1D

High-yield spreads and credit stress. Wider spreads normally push the score higher.

Tier 2

Rates & USD

63 /100
Pressure higher+8 vs 1D

Rate shocks, curve shape, real rates, term premium, and the dollar.

Tier 2

Breadth

44 /100
Supportive-3 vs 1D

Market participation and advance-decline context. Better breadth reduces drawdown risk.

Tier 3

Money flow

49 /100
Mixed+2 vs 1D

Rotation between cyclical and defensive groups, with money-flow confirmation.

Tier 3
Pillar scores are normalized to 0-100. Higher values indicate greater contribution to drawdown risk.

Headline drawdown risk score

Nowcast turns cross-asset signals into a daily probability-style regime read for equity drawdown risk.

52
/100
Mixed
Moderate drawdown risk
Normalize each inputMost inputs are standardized with fixed historical windows so today can be compared with prior regimes.
Map to a risk-off scaleStandardized values are converted to 0-100. Risk-on inputs are inverted before they enter the score.
Blend by tiersTier 1 carries the liquidity and volatility complex, Tier 2 adds funding, credit, rates, and USD, and Tier 3 adds breadth and money flow.
Rebalance missing inputsIf an input is unavailable, the score is reweighted across the remaining signals rather than filled in by the browser.
See this metric in Risk Nowcast Open Macro Dashboard

Cross-asset plumbing stress

Peripheral stress signals are shown alongside the headline score because they can amplify moves.

PlumbingStressHigh

Funding, credit, and rate-volatility stress can raise tail risk even when equities are calm.

Funding markets tighter
Liquidity breadth weakening
Correlation rising
Dealer risk capacity lower

The no-hiding-place booster can push the score higher when stocks and bonds are pressured at the same time.

Risk regime thresholds

Labels help interpret the score, but the thresholds are guidelines rather than hard trading rules.

>= 65
Risk-Off

Elevated drawdown risk. Defensive stance favored.

35 - 65
Mixed

Moderate drawdown risk. Selective risk-taking.

<= 35
Risk-On

Lower drawdown risk. Risk-taking stance favored.

How to use the Nowcast

Use the score as market context, not as a standalone trade signal.

Check the daily score and direction.
Review pillar and peripheral context.
Watch plumbing stress for tail risk.
Use with sizing and risk limits.

Data & API

Stored snapshots feed the API, and the UI reads those snapshots directly.

Snapshot tables

Nightly snapshots are stored in rankalpha.fact_nowcast_snapshot and rankalpha.fact_nowcast_pillar_snapshot.

API endpoint

The backend serves the latest snapshot at /api/v1/nowcast/latest; the frontend proxies through /api/nowcast/latest.

Reproducible changes

The UI reads stored snapshots, so 1-day and 5-day changes are not recalculated in the browser.